The United States’ military strike on Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, has created a dangerous blueprint that Beijing can easily exploit to justify invading Taiwan. The parallels are not merely coincidental—they’re a strategic disaster.
Washington justified its Venezuelan operation through three key arguments: combating criminal activity (narcoterrorism charges), restoring legitimate governance, and temporary occupation to ensure a “proper transition”. President Trump has openly discussed deploying ground troops to “run the country” while American oil companies “invest billions”. Each justification translates seamlessly into Chinese rhetoric about Taiwan.
Criminal Activity: If the U.S. can invade based on drug trafficking allegations, China can cite Taiwan’s role in global financial networks it characterizes as money laundering or sanctions evasion.
Restoring Legitimate Governance: Washington’s democracy promotion argument becomes Beijing’s reunification mandate. China has always claimed Taiwan as a renegade province; now it can argue that forcibly “restoring” Chinese sovereignty mirrors America’s regime change operation.
Temporary Occupation: Trump’s plan to temporarily “run” Venezuela with U.S. troops and economic interests provides perfect cover for China to promise a “transitional period” of military administration in Taiwan, complete with mainland investment to “stabilize” the island’s economy.
Most damaging is Trump’s assertion that Venezuela is “really part of the United States”—rhetoric identical to China’s century-old claim that Taiwan has always been part of China. The U.S. has demolished the international legal framework prohibiting unilateral regime change, the very framework that previously deterred Chinese military action.
The tepid international response compounds the problem. If major powers face no serious consequences for invading smaller neighbors when claiming vital interests, China now has both justification and precedent. America’s Venezuelan adventure may have inadvertently written the script for the Taiwan crisis it has spent decades trying to prevent.
Note: This article was written using AI tools, then edited and refined to reflect the views and opinions of the author.